Does Clutch Hitting Exist in Baseball? The Debate Continues

In baseball, there is perhaps no greater post-season accolade than earning a reputation as a clutch hitter -- the guy who always gets the big hit when his team needs it most. Conversely, there is perhaps no greater post-season bummer than earning a reputation as a choke artist -- the guy who always whiffs when his team needs a hit the most.

Fans, announcers and players have no trouble identifying these guys. Thing is, statisticians can't agree on whether clucth hitting truly exists or not, although most would fall into the latter camp.

Add Scott Lindholm to that group. In a recent post on Fangraphs.com, a popular baseball stats analysis website, Lindholm looked for statistical evidence of clutch hitting by comparing a hitter's usual performance to that of when he steps to the plate with runners in scoring position (RISP). Lindholm's general hypothesis is that if hitters can will themselves to perform better, they will hit for a significantly higher batting average in any RISP situtation. (Note: I'm not sure I agree with this definition, and a few commenters made the point that certain situations, such as those in late innings when the score is close, are more critical than others and should be looked at independently to reveal clutch hitting.)

Lindholm looked at stats from 557 players from the past 20 years, and about 40 of those saw a 10 percent bump in batting average in RISP situations. (Nearly as many saw a 10 percent batting average decrease in the same situation.) The list, however, didn't include many guys who would jump out as great clutch hitters. And, when Lindholm looked at some of those hitters, he found that their relative batting average in RISP situtations varied wildly from season to season.

This is far from the definitive study on the topic -- indeed, many more will certainly follow -- but these results don't do much to help the "clutch hitters exist" camp, according to Lindholm. In general, there just isn't a large enough bump to be meaningful. After all, he writes, even a 10 pecent average bump in RISP situations would, for most players, produce perhaps just three additional hits per year.

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